New Data/Predictions

Data is just out (at 10am this morning) on new home sales for August and they are down 8.3% (source: CNBC and the National Association of Realtors).

A financial analyst at CNBC, Jim Cramer, says he has been speaking with officials at Toll Brothers and KB Homes who are not optimistic about the market for new homes for at least a year or so. I do not think that is anything we have not heard before.

More importantly, what are we seeing locally? A friend of mine who works for a developer/builder in the area posted anonymously with respect to a prior entry and said their high-end homes are moving. I noticed the upbeat comments were based on a lengthy period of time (the last year or so). How about recently? Say, the past few months? This question is not just for the person who posted the comment. What are you seeing, given your knowledge of the market?

How about you lenders/brokers - is the money supply coming back after the reductions in the discount window rate and the target rate? What about the $2 billion Bank of America - combined with the additional $12 billion thereafter from multiple sources - invested in Countrywide? Has that helped with liquidity?

I maintain the following:

* It is a buyer's market, and I wouldn't try to time the bottom. I think we are close to the bottom, if in fact we have not already hit the bottom. If you find the deal you are looking for, jump in - the water's nice.

* Along those same lines, if you are planning to sell anytime soon, I don't foresee any significant increases in values in the near future, so you may as well pull the trigger.

and

* The floor for jumbo loans will be raised in the next year, possibly in the next 6 months.

The bottom line is that buyers' and sellers' expectations are starting to align - a necessary adjustment for a healthy real estate market!

Green Saves Green

For those of you who intend to be eco-friendly with your purchases of real estate and/or repairs to your property, make inquiries directed toward your lender as to whether there are economic benefits for such choices.

Citigroup, Bank of America and J.P. Morgan, to name a few, offer closing credits for energy efficient properties under certain programs. Many of these programs predicate the benefits on meeting criteria set by the governments Energy Star program. Further, these programs often allow a borrower more lending power as projected savings are added into the loan amount through a variety of formulas. (source: WSJ 09/12/07, pg D1)

Pending Sales

The pending sales for the Northeast region of the country were down 12.2 % from June-July. (Source: National Association of Realtors) Keep in mind that this time frame reflects the very beginning of the liquidity crunch in the mortgage market. That being said, I expect the numbers to worsen for July-August, when the money supply really dried up and lenders froze the availability of many risky loan programs.

On the bright side, the restriction on loan availability seems to be leveling off and there are mixed predictions as to what is in store for us at the next Fed meeting scheduled for September 18th. If the Fed reduces rates in conjunction with other efforts to ease the crisis, we should see a turnaround with respect to affordability and accessibility of financing.

Once again, I predict a great buying opportunity for the coming winter.